Super NorthEast Tuesday

What to expect:

  • Connecticut – Trump is averaging 49% in the last three RealClearPolitics polls here with a 20-point plus edge on his nearest rival Kasich. If Trump can exceed 50% of the statewide vote, he picks up all of the state’s 13 at-large delegates. Otherwise, the at-large delegates will be allocated proportionately to candidates receiving more than 20% of the vote. That kind of statewide margin suggests Trump is likely to carry all of the state’s 15 congressional district delegates.
  • Delaware  – Trump is expected to comfortably walk away with Delaware’s 16 winner-take-all delegates.
  • Maryland – Trump looks likely to win Maryland comfortably and with it the state’s 14 at-large delegates. Trump has about a 15-point lead which suggests he should collect most of Maryland’s 24 district delegates.
  • Rhode Island – Trump is going to pick up 2 district delegates (all three candidates will likely get one each in each of the state’s congressional districts). Trump is at approximately 40% in the latest poll out of Rhode Island which suggests he will win 9 or 10 of the state’s 19 at-large proportionately allocated delegates.
  • Pennsylvania – Trump is likely to win Pennsylvania and the state’s 17 at-large delegates. Trump has, on average, a 20-point lead in the latest polling. The most significant question on Tuesday is what happens with Pennsylvania’s 54 district delegates who are elected in a loophole primary. These district delegates will remain unbound until the convention. Trump’s team has released a list of delegates he wants his supporters to vote for. Additionally, the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review has released a survey indicating how most of the delegates are currently intending to vote. The vast majority appear to be leaning towards supporting the winner in their district.

In Trump’s best case scenario, he will add at least another 111 pledged delegates to his total plus however many of the Pennsylvania unbound delegates indicate they intend to support him. This would take Trump to at least 956 pledged delegates.

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